PROTESTERS IN BRAZIL

Understanding Brazil: Protesting

By Ricky Skelton
June 21, 2011

A lot has been made of Brazil‘s strong economy, and complete avoidance of the 2008 Global Economic Crisis. Some put it down to Lula‘s skilful handling of the economy, although as his policy was just to hope that Brazil didn‘t catch the cold, then it was clearly nothing to do with him. Many people far more knowledgeable than me, including some on Gringoes.com‘s very own forums, have been predicting if not a crisis, then certainly a downturn in Brazil‘s economy. It seems to be about to come to pass, although bearing in mind that hardly any Global Economic Experts predicted the biggest crash in decades a couple of years ago, I wouldn‘t bet the house on their advice just yet.

There are signs though. The Real is supposedly the most over-valued currency on the planet (read the forums...), and the strong economy has been a disaster for Brazil‘s exports, as far cheaper Asian substitutes take over the business. One huge pointer as to the economic situation was Dilma‘s refusal in February to raise the salario minimo higher than R$545 after promising on being elected that it would rise to a whopping R$600 in 2011. Economic indicators state that Brazil‘s economy cannot afford such an increase in order to stay competitive. The downturn in exports is beginning to kick in, with many manufacturers of goods such as cars now having surplus stock. Car prices are expected to drop as a result.

At the sharp end of the wedge are the Brazilian workers, especially the public employees. With inflation maintained at around 6%, the average wage of your average Brazilian has been effectively dropping for the last few years, as prices increase far more than salaries. Something has to give, the economy cannot stay so strong if not everybody benefits, and clearly there is no trickle-down effect. Perhaps the likes of Sergio Cabral and Antonio Palocci‘s consultancy fees have meant that there is no money available for everyone else.

Recent posts circulating on Facebook have given the idea that Brazilians may be finally getting shaken out of their shoulder-shrugging, ‘what-can-you-do‘ torpor, and about to protest.

BOPE: R$2.260,00 prá arriscar a vida!
Bombeiro: R$960,00 prá salvar vidas!
Professor: R$728,00 prá preparar para a vida!
SÉRGIO CABRAL: R$17.000,00 prá ‘bagunçar‘ a VIDA dos outros.
Vergonha Nacional.

Brazilians as a population have always been curiously reluctant to protest about anything, unlike their neighbours in Argentina, Bolivia and Peru. Strikes and protests just don‘t happen here, whether through fear of reprisals that stem from the period of Military Dictatorship or something deeper in the Brazilian psyche.

The surest sign of an economy hitting trouble is an increase in the protests of workers. The first ones in Brazil are here, with the Bombeiros of Rio protesting about an increase in their salary from a paltry R$960, most of which is made up in benefits rather than wage. It is good to see such protests in Brazil, less good to see the dictatorship-style way that Cabral ordered BOPE to put an end to the situation. The protests have now spread to more public areas, such as outside Copacabana Palace, with more people involved. Who knows how long they will continue.

It would be nice to think that any downturn in the Brazilian economy could lead to an increase in this type of protest. If Brazil‘s coming ‘crisis‘ could help waken the dormant Latin American Protest gene, then Brazil as a whole might benefit in the long term. Citizens more willing to protest against the excesses of the country‘s political elite. Citizens from other walks of life, other communities prepared to follow Marina Silva‘s lead and move into politics perhaps, and help dilute the influence of those in power at the moment, the wealthy, land-owning elite. If you watch any of the Brazilian Parliament footage, it is quite staggering how unrepresentative of the Brazilian population the overwhelmingly white, male congress remains, despite having a female president. Surely a country ruled by a more representative cross-section of Brazilian society would result in a fairer sharing of the wealth, and help Brazil become the country it already imagines itself to be.